Trump’s $1.5 Trillion Hammer & Your Portfolio
The Ruck Filter #001 • January 11, 2026
We are living in historic times. While Europe is debating debt brakes, Donald Trump has opened the fiscal floodgates in Washington this week.
I spent 18 hours listening to elite podcasts to find the signal in the noise.
Here is your filter for the week.
1. Noise vs. Alpha (The US View) 🇺🇸
The Noise (Mainstream Media): “Trump’s chaotic spending plans will destroy global trade.” The Alpha (All-In & Pivot): “Trump’s deregulation will unleash a massive CapEx boom in the US.”
The Ruck Filter Take: While German TV focuses on moral outrage, US investors are allocating capital.
The Disconnect: The VCs in Silicon Valley are betting heavily on a “Deregulation Super-Cycle.” They believe removing red tape will boost earnings more than tariffs will hurt them.
Actionable Insight: Do not short the US market based on European headlines. The smart money is buying US Infrastructure and Defense.
2. The Transatlantic Arbitrage (The German Play) 🇩🇪
The Setup: US Tech stocks (Nvidia, Palantir) are trading at record valuations. Everyone is looking there. But the “Trump Trade” (Rearmament) has a cheaper mirror image in Germany.
The Arbitrage:
Expensive US Play: Lockheed Martin (P/E Ratio > 20)
High-Growth German Play: Rheinmetall & Hensoldt
Why it works: While Lockheed is a slow-growing giant, Rheinmetall is strictly executing a massive growth roadmap ($50bn revenue by 2030). You are not buying 'cheap'; you are buying the growth that US giants lack.
My Move: I am looking at dips in Rheinmetall as a buying opportunity. The “Peace Dividend” is dead.
3. The Ruck Triangulation 📐
The Signal: “High-for-longer Interest Rates.”
This week, three disconnected worlds aligned on one scary fact:
Point A (Politics): Trump’s spending ($1.5T) is inflationary. (Source: Ronzheimer)
Point B (Macro): The 10-Year Treasury Yield spiked above 4.2%. (Source: Macro Voices)
Point C (Business): Tech companies are rushing to lock in debt now before it gets more expensive. (Source: Acquired)
The Result: When Politics, Charts, and CFOs all scream “Inflation” -> Tech stocks with no profits will get crushed. Stick to companies with real cash flow (Meta, Google).
4. Podcast of the Week 🎧
The Episode: The All-In Podcast – “2026 Predictions & The Year Ahead”
Why this one? It is the most influential dialogue in Silicon Valley right now. While mainstream media focuses on risk, these four VCs (who control billions in capital) focus on opportunity.
The Contrarian Insight (Non-Consensus): Everyone expects 2026 to be the year of “AI Regulation” and lawsuits. The All-In crew predicts the exact opposite: The “M&A Tsunami.”
The Thesis: With the new US administration replacing aggressive antitrust regulators (like Lina Khan), the blocked dam will break. Big Tech (Apple, Amazon, Google) sits on mountains of cash.
The Prediction: They will not build; they will buy. We will see the biggest wave of acquisitions in tech history.
Your Alpha: Small to mid-cap software companies (SaaS) that were beaten down in 2025 are now prime takeover targets. Watch the Russell 2000 tech components.
See you next Sunday, Daniel Ruck
Editor of The Ruck Filter