🌐 The Bubble Filter: AI Capex, China Deals, Hyrox, Biosimilars
The Ruck Filter #019 • May 18, 2026
Read time: 5 minutes
Welcome back to The Ruck Filter.
The market is starting to ask the uncomfortable question again: are we in a bubble?
The AI boom has clear echoes of 2000: extreme concentration, stretched market multiples, circular financing, and a capex wave so large it starts to look like its own asset class. But the comparison also breaks down in one important place: today’s leaders are not mostly cash-burning concepts. They are money machines.
This week, we filter the AI bubble debate, Trump’s China opening, the rise of fitness-event ecosystems, the post-patent biosimilar trade, and why Latin America still looks fundamentally cheap.
1. Signal vs. Noise: The AI Bubble Debate 🫧
The Noise: AI is just Dotcom 2.0.
The Alpha: The parallels are real, but not complete. The current boom has bubble-like market structure, while the underlying companies have far more substance than the internet darlings of 2000.
The Filter: The bear case is not stupid. The five largest US companies now make up around 30% of the S&P 500, even more concentrated than in 2000. The Shiller P/E sits around 42, close to the March 2000 peak of 44. And the circular financing looks familiar: Nvidia invests in partners like OpenAI, which then spend heavily on Nvidia chips.
That smells like vendor financing - the same kind of structure that made Lucent and Nortel look stronger than they really were.
But the bull case has weight too. Microsoft, Nvidia, and the other AI leaders are not empty internet shells. They fund capex from operating cash flow. Nvidia trades around 27x forward earnings, not Cisco-at-150x territory. And AI usage is no longer theoretical: 71% of organizations already use AI regularly.
The bubble question is not whether AI is real.
It is whether the earnings growth can keep justifying the infrastructure bill.
The Play:
Nvidia, Applied Materials, Cisco: the shovel sellers.
Alphabet: vertically integrated from chip to model.
Vertiv, Equinix, Digital Realty: second-order beneficiaries of cooling and data-center infrastructure.
2. The Geopolitical View: The Trump-China Deal 🌏
The Noise: A US-China thaw is good for everyone.
The Alpha: It may be good for US tech and China exposure - but dangerous for European industry.
The Filter: Trump’s China approach is not centered on old-economy goods. It is about AI, chips, and strategic technology. If export controls loosen, especially around products like H200 chips, US tech could get a fresh catalyst.
The problem is Europe.
A bilateral US-China deal could create a “China Shock 2.0” for Germany. Autos and machinery are already under pressure from China’s growing self-sufficiency. If China secures better access to US technology while Europe loses leverage around rare earths, the squeeze gets worse.
And then there is Taiwan.
TSMC remains the critical chokepoint in the global chip supply chain. Any escalation around Taiwan would turn the AI trade from a valuation debate into a supply-chain crisis.
The Play:
China ETFs, battery and EV exposure: beneficiaries of a softer US-China setup.
Tesla, Apple, Qualcomm: US names with China sensitivity.
Caution on Volkswagen, BMW, and German machinery: exposed to China’s industrial independence and potential US-China side deals.
3. The Fitness Hype: Hyrox Becomes a Sport Ecosystem 🏋️
The Noise: Fitness events are just bucket-list experiences.
The Alpha: The best formats are turning into global sport ecosystems.
The Filter: Hyrox is not only selling event tickets. It is building a B2B2C machine.
The key is the gym network. Around 15,000 licensed gyms effectively become the marketing arm. They train members, create local communities, and push athletes toward the events. That lowers customer-acquisition pressure and makes the format repeatable.
The margin story gets interesting when the event footprint scales. New York expanding to 10 event days means more revenue from the same location setup. Fixed costs get spread over more participants.
Puma’s partnership adds legitimacy. When “training” gets replaced by “Hyrox,” the format starts to look less like a trend and more like a sport category.
The Play:
Puma: exclusive apparel partner.
Eventim: exposed to the broader live-event boom.
4. The Healthcare Outlook: Biosimilars and the Post-Patent Era 💉
The Noise: Generics are a boring low-growth corner of healthcare.
The Alpha: Biosimilars are not classic generics. They are harder to copy, face less brutal price pressure, and are growing much faster.
The Filter: Traditional generics are growing around 2%. Biosimilars are growing around 13%.
That gap matters.
Biosimilars copy complex biologic drugs, not simple chemical pills. They require more expertise, more manufacturing capability, and more regulatory work. That creates a better market structure than old-school generics, where price competition can destroy margins.
The next major unlock comes from the patent cliff. As blockbuster drugs like Ozempic move toward patent expiry in the 2030s, the market for specialized follow-on products could become enormous.
The Play:
Sandoz: biosimilar market leader.
Novo Nordisk: pipeline and lifecycle exposure.
Hims & Hers: distribution angle.
Outro: The Bubble Is Real - But So Is the Boom
The lazy take is that AI is 2000 all over again.
The better take is more uncomfortable: some parts look like a bubble, while other parts look like the most important infrastructure cycle in decades.
That means the trade is not “AI yes” or “AI no.”
It is about separating cash-flow machines from narrative machines, infrastructure bottlenecks from hype, and structural growth from valuation fantasy.
The Takeaway:
Are you buying the AI story - or filtering for the companies that still make sense if the bubble debate gets louder?
Daniel Ruck
Editor, The Ruck Filter
Disclaimer: The Ruck Filter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. The information provided is based on data available at the time of writing and is subject to change. Investing in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Every reader is solely responsible for their own trading and investment decisions. Please conduct your own due diligence or consult with a licensed professional before making any financial commitments.