🌐 The Orbital Lifeboat: Musk’s SpaceX Merger & The Warsh Regime
The Ruck Filter #005 • February 8, 2026
Read time: 4 minutes
Welcome back to The Ruck Filter.
We are exiting the era of "Software as a Tool" and entering "Software as an Employee." This shift is deflating SaaS multiples while inflating the value of physical power and real-time data. If you aren't positioning for the Agentic Layer, you are playing a 2024 game in a 2026 reality.
Today, we filter the strategic “rescue” of xAI, the permanent repricing of SaaS, and the modernization of the Federal Reserve.
1. Signal vs. Noise: The Musk "Rescue Mission" Merger 🚀
The Noise: xAI is a standalone AI powerhouse ready to challenge OpenAI.
The Alpha: xAI is currently "not fundable" as a solo entity due to a burn rate exceeding $1 billion per month and a valuation that has detached from its actual revenue.
The Filter: The merger of xAI with SpaceX is a strategic masterstroke. It leverages SpaceX’s massive profitability and its highly anticipated $50 billion IPO to subsidize the capital-intensive development of Grok. By using a "two-step merger" through a subsidiary, Musk protects SpaceX from xAI's direct liabilities while maintaining a high ownership stake. It’s not just a merger; it’s a capital infusion disguised as synergy.
The Play: Celestica (WKN: A406LU) is the "Hardware Proxy." While the market worries about the high multiples of the SpaceX-xAI merger, Celestica produces the actual switches and compute modules that make "Orbital AI" a physical reality rather than just a headline.
2. The Grid Migration: "Claude Crash" & FOBO 💻
The Signal: Traditional Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) models are hitting a "hard ceiling." Investors are pricing in a permanent FOBO (Fear of Becoming Obsolete).
The Filter: We are seeing a transition from "per-seat" licensing to the Agentic Layer. Tools like "Claude Code" allow tiny teams to replace entire departments (Design, Dev, Product). When a small team can "vibe-code" a bespoke solution, the durability of legacy software vanishes. Multiples are dropping from 30x to 15x free cash flow because the "moat" of a 10,000-person sales force is being drained by AI agents.
The Play: MongoDB (WKN: A2DYB1). If the "Agentic Layer" is the new operating system of the enterprise, MongoDB is the primary database for that OS. It captures the value of the action layer, not just the archive layer.
3. The Ruck Triangulation: The Warsh Regime ⚡
The Federal Reserve is about to get a technological upgrade. The nomination of Kevin Warsh marks a shift from manual surveys to real-time, data-driven governance.
Point A: The Deflationary Force (AI): Warsh views AI as a massive productivity boost. This allows the economy to run "hot" with 4-5% GDP growth without triggering the "inflation panic" that leads to rate hikes.
Point B: Real-Time Analytics: The Fed’s data collection is currently "stale." Warsh intends to replace manual surveys with real-time private sector data (e.g., Zillow) and AI-driven analytics to move the needle faster.
Point C: The Molecule Reality: AI isn't virtual; it’s physical. We are trading "Paper Tech" for "Hard Power" (Natural Gas & Copper).
The Filter: You cannot have a technological upgrade of the Federal Reserve or an AI-powered economy without Copper. From high-speed data cables to the massive power grid expansion required for AI data centers, copper is the non-negotiable molecule of the "Warsh Rally."
The Play: Freeport-McMoRan (WKN: 896476) or a WTI Crude Bull Call Spread (60/72). Freeport-McMoRan is the purest play on the "Red Gold" shortage. As copper prices touch record highs ($13,000+ per ton), FCX’s massive operational leverage at the Grasberg mine turns every cent of price increase into pure free cash flow.
4. The Branding War: Claude’s Super Bowl Strike 🏈
The Signal: Anthropic’s "genius" Super Bowl campaign mocking ads in ChatGPT.
The Filter: This is a direct assault on OpenAI’s trust deficit. By positioning Claude as the "un-corrupted" alternative, Anthropic has turned the branding war into a battle for integrity. Sam Altman’s defensive reaction confirms the attack "struck a nerve." While others focus on compute, Anthropic is winning on Brand Sovereignty.
The Play: Alphabet (WKN: A14Y6F) is the ultimate beneficiary of this rivalry. It possesses both the IP and the "fire hose" of 2 billion users to challenge OpenAI as the latter struggles with branding hurdles and monetization friction.
Outro: The Takeaway
The "per-seat" model is a ghost ship. Value is migrating from human seats to the intelligence layer and the molecules that power it.
The Challenge: Look at your portfolio. How much of it relies on “legacy human friction”? If the Agentic Layer can do it in 2 seconds for 2 cents, your “moat” is actually a drain.
Are you betting on the architect or the bricks? Let me know your highest-conviction “Agentic play” for Q2.
Daniel Ruck Editor, The Ruck Filter