🌐 The Compounder Filter: Starship V3, Wegovy Pill & The Bremen Pivot
The Ruck Filter #020 • May 24, 2026
Read time: 5 minutes
Welcome back to The Ruck Filter.
Two events on Friday changed the setup for the second half of 2026.
At 6:30 p.m. Texas time, SpaceX’s Starship V3 lifted off from Starbase Pad 2 on Flight 12, the first launch of the new vehicle generation. The Ship survived reentry and splashed down in the Indian Ocean. The Super Heavy booster missed its boost-back burn and ended in the Gulf of Mexico — but that part of the mission was not planned for recovery. NASA’s Artemis 4 lunar lander is supposed to be a Starship V3 derivative.
A few hours earlier in Copenhagen, the EMA’s CHMP recommended Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy for approval in Europe — the first oral GLP-1 cleared for weight management in the EU. 16.6% mean weight loss in OASIS 4, no drug-drug restrictions, launch outside the US in the second half of 2026.
Two events. Two new addressable markets. And one running question — also the topic of this week’s Alles auf Aktien Compounder-König episode: can the old moats still compound at the same rate when the underlying technology shifts under them?
This week we filter the picks-and-shovels of the Starship era, OHB’s quiet Re-IPO into a defense prime, the second wave of the GLP-1 consumer reset, and why a family-controlled Italian mid-cap may be the most overlooked AI compounder in Europe.
1. Signal vs. Noise: The Suppliers of the Orbital Build-Out 🛰️
The Noise: SpaceX winning the launch market means the trade is over.
The Alpha: A launch monopoly is precisely when the supplier layer starts to compound. The interesting capital is no longer in the vehicle — it sits in the test instruments, the second-source launch capacity, and the high-frequency analog content per satellite.
The Filter: Three observations from the past two weeks.
First, the constellations are scaling, not slowing. Starlink has crossed 10,000 active satellites. Starship V3 is designed for a deployment cadence the previous architecture could not support, and SpaceX has now flown 58 missions year-to-date by mid-May. Every satellite still requires RF testing on the ground before it goes up.
Second, Viavi’s Q3 fiscal 2026 print (April 29) confirms where the demand is concentrating: $406.8 million in revenue, +42.8% year-over-year, with aerospace and defense moving from Tier 2 into US Tier 1 programs via the Inertial Labs integration. Operating margin expanded to 21%. Guidance for Q4 is $427–437 million — visibility most testing companies have not had in five years.
Third, Rocket Lab is finally executing on the medium-lift thesis. Q1 2026 revenue of $200.3 million (+63.5% YoY), backlog of $2.2 billion (+108% YoY), and the largest launch contract in company history — five Neutron and three Electron launches for a confidential customer through 2029. Neutron’s first flight remains targeted for Q4 2026, and a Stage 1 tank test failure earlier this year is still the visible execution risk.
The Play (with appropriate position sizing):
Viavi Solutions (VIAV) — testing layer for satellites, defense, and AI RAN. Around 17x forward earnings. What to watch: aerospace & defense growth slowing below 25% YoY by Q1 fiscal 2027 would signal the Tier 1 ramp is plateauing.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) — the only credible non-SpaceX medium-lift option, currently trading at all-time highs without a near-term valuation anchor. Suited as a sized growth position, not a core holding. What to watch: a second tank-test setback pushing Neutron into 2027.
MACOM Technology (MTSI) — RF and high-frequency analog into satcom and defense. Around 30x forward earnings, defensible only if defense backlog conversion holds through 2027.
IonQ (IONQ) — quantum optionality on satellite encryption. A small call-option position at most. The thesis works only on a multi-year horizon and is not appropriate as a portfolio anchor.
2. The Bremen Pivot: OHB Becomes a Defense Prime 🛰️
The Noise: OHB is still a civil ESA contractor.
The Alpha: It is in the process of becoming the European prime for AI-defined space reconnaissance, and the institutional float is about to triple. The investment question is whether the multiple already reflects that.
The Filter: On May 19, OHB and Helsing announced KIRK — Künstliche Intelligenz und Raumfahrt-Kompetenz — a joint venture for software-defined satellites with onboard AI for target recognition. KIRK formalizes OHB’s role inside a consortium with Kongsberg and HENSOLDT for stand-off targeting. For the first time, OHB sits inside an AI-defense space alliance rather than adjacent to one.
In parallel, ESA confirmed OHB Czechspace as prime contractor for the SOVA-S Earth-observation mission. The order backlog reached €3.35 billion at the end of Q1 2026, up 45% year-over-year. Q1 total output was €279.3 million, +15% YoY.
The third leg is the shareholder structure. KKR holds approximately 29% via Orchid Lux Holdings and has mandated Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to place around 20 percentage points of that — a transaction north of €1 billion. With current free float at roughly 6%, the placement transforms OHB from a closely held compounder into a stock that institutional mandates can actually own. The Fuchs family retains 65% voting control.
The valuation is the discipline question. After a year-to-date move of roughly 400% to around €635, the multiple sits near 250x earnings. That math compounds only if SatcomBw-4 (estimated €2.7–3.3 billion potential revenue share for OHB) and KIRK contracts convert through 2027–28. The execution risk is high; so is the optionality.
A measured approach:
OHB SE — for portfolios with existing aerospace and defense exposure, this is best treated as a thematic position rather than a core compounder at current levels. The placement print is the more disciplined entry: a KKR block executed at a meaningful discount to spot is the typical pattern in transactions of this size.
What to watch: whether SatcomBw-4 procurement architecture stays on the direct-award track (favorable for the OHB-Rheinmetall consortium) or shifts to a multi-vendor SDA-style tender. Calendar to mark: ex-dividend 9 June, AGM 24 June, Q2 results 6 August.
3. The Ozempic Pill Moment: GLP-1 Goes Mass 💊
The Noise: The GLP-1 trade is fully priced and the consumer impact is overstated.
The Alpha: Friday’s CHMP opinion structurally changes the European setup — from an injectable niche reserved for high-compliance patients to an oral mass market accessible through primary care. The investable consequences extend well beyond the two manufacturers.
The Filter: The injectable version of Wegovy built the thesis. The pill scales it. No refrigeration, no needles, no monthly clinic touchpoint. The CHMP opinion is based on OASIS 4 — 16.6% mean weight loss at 64 weeks with full adherence, comparable to the injectable. Novo Nordisk targets a European launch in H2 2026. The US version, approved by the FDA in December 2025, already pulled more than one million Americans into oral semaglutide therapy in its first months.
Two consequences for portfolio construction.
First, the producers consolidate the win. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are no longer competing for early adopters — they are competing for primary-care prescription share against a much larger addressable population. Lilly’s orforglipron pill is in FDA review and is the next catalyst on the calendar. Novo Nordisk delivered strong Q4 2025 GLP-1 momentum, which contributed to Lilly’s international volume +38% in the same quarter (Mounjaro-led, after adjusting for a one-time Boehringer item).
Second, the consumer side is no longer hypothetical. Mondelez management has publicly modeled a 1–1.5% volume impact over ten years. That assumption was defensible while injectable Wegovy reached around 5–7% of obese US adults. It is materially harder to defend as a pill version rolls out into 50+ markets with a far easier compliance profile.
A measured approach:
Novo Nordisk (NVO) — first-mover on the oral GLP-1, despite the 2025 stock reset. Around 18x forward earnings, below the five-year average. The cleaner of the two ways into the structural story today. What to watch: Lilly’s orforglipron Phase 3 tolerability data ahead of US launch.
Eli Lilly (LLY) — broader pipeline (Zepbound, Mounjaro, orforglipron). Around 33x forward earnings prices in near-perfect execution. Suitable as a thematic add, less so as the core GLP-1 position at current multiples.
McKesson (MCK) — the pick-and-shovel of US prescription distribution, including all GLP-1 flow. Around 17x forward, with the kind of boring resilience that fits long-duration capital.
Worth keeping under review on the loser side: Mondelez (MDLZ) and Domino’s Pizza (DPZ). Not a short call — but a relative-weight call. If GLP-1 penetration runs ahead of consensus through 2027, both face slower-than-modeled volume growth on top of an already mature US category.
4. Italy’s Silent AI Compounder 🇮🇹
The Noise: The semiconductor AI trade lives in Santa Clara and Taipei.
The Alpha: A family-controlled Italian mid-cap quietly pulled its 2027 targets a full year forward last week — the kind of operating leverage that compounder-style portfolios are built around.
The Filter: On May 15, Technoprobe issued its third upward guidance revision in thirteen months. Q1 2026 revenue came in at €187 million (+19% YoY), EBITDA at €69.2 million (+44.2%), with EBITDA margin up around 650 basis points. Management pulled forward the €900 million 2027 revenue target into 2026 and lifted it to €1.05 billion at 44–46% EBITDA margin. The stock rallied roughly 31% on the day to €26.
The reason for the rerate is structural, not a single order. Vertical MEMS probe cards are the test interface for every advanced GPU, every custom hyperscaler ASIC, and increasingly for HBM memory stacks. As chip complexity rises, test intensity rises non-linearly. Technoprobe owns approximately 60% of the high-end vertical MEMS segment. UBS estimates a $600 million HBM probe-card TAM by 2028 with Technoprobe positioned to capture around 20%.
The same logic applies in Japan. Ajinomoto’s ABF insulation films are present in essentially every advanced AI chip package. Pricing power is real because there is no commercial substitute at current node geometries — a position the food-and-chemicals conglomerate has held quietly for over a decade.
A measured approach:
Technoprobe (TPRO.MI) — the closest thing to a pure-play test compounder in Europe. After the rerate, around 37x forward earnings on the new 2026 guidance, around 25x on 2027 numbers. Not cheap, but consistent with what the market typically pays for a 60% share compounder in a structurally growing niche. What to watch: EBITDA margin holding above 40% over the next two prints — this is the operating leverage check.
Ajinomoto (2802.T) — the slower, more patient way to own the AI packaging story. Around 22x forward, supported by ABF dominance and a quietly improving consumer food turnaround. The kind of position that compounds without drawing attention.
Outro: The Compounder Question
This week’s debate — and the framing of the Alles auf Aktien Compounder-König episode — is whether AI is dissolving the traditional moats that long-term investors rely on. Friday’s events suggest the answer is more textured.
Some moats genuinely are being rebuilt under AI: reconnaissance satellites with onboard intelligence, drug-delivery formats that change patient compliance, test instruments that price by node complexity. The compounders that emerge from this cycle look less like the consumer-staples names of the last decade and more like specialized infrastructure suppliers with family ownership and pricing power against a structural buyer.
The discipline for long-duration capital is twofold: identifying these new compounders early, and resisting the urge to chase them once the rerate has happened.
The Takeaway: Are you sizing the headline trades — or the suppliers that the headlines need to buy from?
Daniel Ruck Editor, The Ruck Filter
Filter Sources this week
Alles auf Aktien (WELT) — “KI zerstört Burggräben? Die Ansagen des Compounder-Königs,” 22 May 2026
Spaceflight Now — Starship Flight 12 coverage, 22 May 2026
Novo Nordisk CHMP statement, 22 May 2026
OHB SE / Helsing KIRK joint venture announcement, 19 May 2026
Technoprobe S.p.A. Q1 2026 earnings release, 15 May 2026
Rocket Lab Q1 2026 earnings release, 7–8 May 2026
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