The M&A Shift – Remedies over Blocks
The Ruck Filter #002 • January 18, 2026
Read time: 4 minutes
🚨 BREAKING UPDATE (Saturday, Jan 17, 6 PM): President Trump has just announced the “Greenland Levy” via Truth Social. A 10% import tariff on German and EU goods (rising to 25% by June) will be imposed unless a deal for Greenland is reached.
The Ruck Filter View: This isn’t a trade war—it’s a buyout negotiation on a sovereign scale. It confirms our core thesis for today’s issue: The administration uses economic pressure as a catalyst for structural deals. For the German tech leaders analyzed below, this environment only accelerates the timeline for US strategic acquisitions.
Welcome back to The Ruck Filter.
For the last few years, the transatlantic deal market was effectively frozen. But as we enter mid-January 2026, the ice is cracking. While the headlines are currently dominated by the “Greenland Levy” and the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the real signal for investors is more nuanced.
We are witnessing a fundamental pivot from “Hard Blocks” to “Strategic Remedies.” For US Tech Giants sitting on record cash piles, the hunt for strategic “Hard Tech” has officially reopened.
Here is your signal for the week.
1. Noise vs. Alpha 🔍
The Noise: The market is distracted by headlines about a “Trade War” and fears of total deregulation. This binary thinking misses the nuance of the new administration.
The Alpha: The real signal is the shift from “Blocking” to “Remedies.” The new FTC leadership has shifted from “Ideological Blocking” to “Pragmatic Dealmaking.” They are not abolishing Antitrust, but they are accepting structural solutions (divestitures) to enable deals.
The Proof: Look at the Synopsys-Ansys and Keysight-Spirent approvals. These deals went through not because rules were ignored, but because the companies agreed to sell off specific assets to preserve competition.
Insight: The M&A market has unlocked. Alpha lies in identifying companies that fit into a US strategic portfolio but can easily divest overlapping units to satisfy the new “Remedy-First” doctrine.
2. Transatlantic Arbitrage: The “Hard Tech” Targets 🏹
The Thesis: The valuation gap remains the primary driver. US Tech trades at high multiples (20x-30x), while German specialized engineering trades at a discount (10x-12x). We see three prime candidates for this new M&A environment:
Siltronic AG (Global Wafers): One of the few global producers of hyper-pure silicon wafers. After the failed sale to GlobalWafers (blocked by Berlin in the past), the geopolitical landscape has changed. Unlike the failed Asian bid, US ownership is effectively NATO ownership. For a US semiconductor ecosystem looking to reduce reliance on Asia, Siltronic is a strategic asset priced like a commodity producer.
Jenoptik AG (Photonics & Optics): As the AI race hits the physical limits of chip manufacturing, optics become the bottleneck. Jenoptik supplies essential components for the semiconductor industry. It is a perfect “Bolt-on” acquisition for a US giant like Applied Materials or KLA Corp seeking to own the optical stack (assuming a spin-off of the non-core Traffic division). In the Angstrom-era, lithography is optics. Whoever owns the lens, owns the yield.
Aixtron SE (Power Semiconductors): The “Energy-AI” play. Aixtron is a leader in deposition equipment for Gallium Nitride (GaN) and Silicon Carbide (SiC)—materials essential for efficient data centers. With power efficiency being the #1 constraint for AI in 2026, Aixtron is a high-value target for the US supply chain (despite export control friction).
3. The Ruck Triangulation 📐
Point A: Washington (Speed is Back): The return of “Early Termination” for HSR filings means unproblematic deals can close in 30 days. This reduces the “deal risk” that paralyzed M&A in previous years.
Point B: Silicon Valley (The Deployment): With the Magnet Defense acquisition of ATG confirmed (Jan 9), we see the first proof of capital moving into “Hard Tech” consolidation. Private Equity and Strategic Buyers are deploying cash to build integrated platforms.
Point C: DACH Region (The CapEx Flight): Companies like BASF are directing their future growth capital primarily toward the US. The German industrial base is being managed for cash flow, while the growth story moves across the Atlantic. This divergence makes a “US Exit” (acquisition) the most logical outcome for shareholders of mid-sized German tech firms.
The Result: We expect a wave of strategic acquisitions where US capital absorbs European engineering IP to scale it within the American regulatory framework.
4. Podcast of the Week 🎧
The Episode: Alles auf Aktien (WELT) – “Comeback der kleinen Werte – die Aktien des Nebenwerte-Profis” (Released: Jan 16, 2026)
The Briefing: In this deep dive into the German Small-Cap landscape, fund manager Mark Siebel confirms a massive structural trend: European “Hidden Champions” are currently in a historic M&A cycle.
The Signal: Siebel reports that in his fund alone, six companies were acquired in the last 16 months.
The Driver: A staggering 40% valuation discount of European small caps compared to US peers. Combined with stable cash flows and niche dominance, these firms have become “irresistible” to strategic buyers and Private Equity.
The Ruck Filter Lens: While the mainstream discussion focuses on a classic “Value Recovery” or Private Equity buyouts (like the PSI software deal), we see the Transatlantic Filter at work. The “Value Gap” is so wide that independence is becoming a liability. For investors, the question is no longer if these companies will be revalued, but who will write the check first—a Private Equity firm or a US Strategic giant looking for “Hard Tech” IP.
Outro
The Takeaway: The “Dam” hasn’t just burst; the river has been redirected. The flow of capital is favoring Strategic Hard Tech.
Watch the SDAX and MDAX. The next headline deal won’t be a merger of equals, but a strategic absorption of German IP into US Scale.
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Daniel Ruck Editor, The Ruck Filter